Temporal Spatial Decomposition and Fusion Network for Time Series Forecasting

Feature engineering is required to obtain better results for time series forecasting, and decomposition is a crucial one. One decomposition approach often cannot be used for numerous forecasting tasks since the standard time series decomposition lacks flexibility and robustness. Traditional feature selection relies heavily on preexisting domain knowledge, has no generic methodology, and requires a lot of labor. However, most time series prediction models based on deep learning typically suffer from interpretability issue, so the "black box" results lead to a lack of confidence. To deal with the above issues forms the motivation of the thesis. In the paper we propose TSDFNet as a neural network with self-decomposition mechanism and an attentive feature fusion mechanism, It abandons feature engineering as a preprocessing convention and creatively integrates it as an internal module with the deep model. The self-decomposition mechanism empowers TSDFNet with extensible and adaptive decomposition capabilities for any time series, users can choose their own basis functions to decompose the sequence into temporal and generalized spatial dimensions. Attentive feature fusion mechanism has the ability to capture the importance of external variables and the causality with target variables. It can automatically suppress the unimportant features while enhancing the effective ones, so that users do not have to struggle with feature selection. Moreover, TSDFNet is easy to look into the "black box" of the deep neural network by feature visualization and analyze the prediction results. We demonstrate performance improvements over existing widely accepted models on more than a dozen datasets, and three experiments showcase the interpretability of TSDFNet.Comment: 10 page

学会抄録

BackgroundMany developing countries are experiencing rapid ecological changes such as deforestation and shifting agricultural practices. These environmental changes may have an important consequence on malaria due to their impact on vector survival and reproduction. Despite intensive deforestation and malaria transmission in the China-Myanmar border area, the impact of deforestation on malaria vectors in the border area is unknown.MethodsWe conducted life table studies on Anopheles minimus larvae to determine the pupation rate and development time in microcosms under deforested, banana plantation, and forested environments.ResultsThe pupation rate of An. minimus was 3.8 % in the forested environment. It was significantly increased to 12.5 % in banana plantations and to 52.5 % in the deforested area. Deforestation reduced larval-to-pupal development time by 1.9-3.3 days. Food supplementation to aquatic habitats in forested environments and banana plantations significantly increased larval survival rate to a similar level as in the deforested environment.ConclusionDeforestation enhanced the survival and development of An. minimus larvae, a major malaria vector in the China-Myanmar border area. Experimental determination of the life table parameters on mosquito larvae under a variety of environmental conditions is valuable to model malaria transmission dynamics and impact by climate and environmental changes

Examining Plasmodium falciparum and P. vivax clearance subsequent to antimalarial drug treatment in the Myanmar-China border area based on quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction

BackgroundRecent emergence of artemisinin-resistant P. falciparum has posed a serious hindrance to the elimination of malaria in the Greater Mekong Subregion. Parasite clearance time, a measure of change in peripheral parasitaemia in a sequence of samples taken after treatment, can be used to reflect the susceptibility of parasites or the efficiency of antimalarials. The association of genetic polymorphisms and artemisinin resistance has been documented. This study aims to examine clearance time of P. falciparum and P. vivax parasitemia as well as putative gene mutations associated with residual or recurred parasitemia in Myanmar.MethodsA total of 63 P. falciparum and 130 P. vivax samples collected from two internally-displaced populations and one surrounding village were examined for parasitemia changes. At least four samples were taken from each patient, at the first day of diagnosis up to 3 months following the initial treatment. The amount of parasite gene copy number was estimated using quantitative real-time PCR based on a species-specific region of the 18S rRNA gene. For samples that showed residual or recurred parasitemia after treatment, microsatellites were used to identify the 'post-treatment' parasite genotype and compared such with the 'pre-treatment' genotype. Mutations in genes pfcrt, pfmdr1, pfatp6, pfmrp1 and pfK13 that are potentially associated with ACT resistance were examined to identify if mutation is a factor for residual or persistent parasitemia.ResultsOver 30% of the P. falciprium infections showed delayed clearance of parasitemia after 2-3 days of treatment and 9.5% showed recurred parasitemia. Mutations in codon 876 of the pfmrp1 corroborated significance association with slow clearance time. However, no association was observed in the variation in pfmdr1 gene copy number as well as mutations of various codonsinpfatp6, pfcrt, and pfK13 with clearance time. For P. vivax, over 95% of the infections indicated cleared parasitemia at days 2-3 of treatment. Four samples were found to be re-infected with new parasite strains based on microsatellite genotypes after initial treatment.ConclusionThe appearance of P.falciparum infected samples showing delayed clearance or recurred parasitemia after treatment raises concerns on current treatment and ACT drug resistance

第1059回千葉医学会例会・第2回呼吸器内科例会(第16回呼吸器内科同門会)

Additional file 4. Diseases prevention and control provided and medical services availabilities in different villages and camps

Molecular epidemiology of drug-resistant malaria in western Kenya highlands

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Since the late 1980s a series of malaria epidemics has occurred in western Kenya highlands. Among the possible factors that may contribute to the highland malaria epidemics, parasite resistance to antimalarials has not been well investigated.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Using parasites from highland and lowland areas of western Kenya, we examined key mutations associated with <it>Plasmodium falciparum </it>resistance to sulfadoxine – pyrimethamine and chloroquine, including dihydrofolate reductase (<it>pfdhfr</it>) and dihydropteroate synthetase (<it>pfdhps</it>), chloroquine resistance transporter gene (<it>pfcrt</it>), and multi-drug resistance gene 1 (<it>pfmdr1</it>).</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We found that >70% of samples harbored 76T <it>pfcrt </it>mutations and over 80% of samples harbored quintuple mutations (51I/59R/108N <it>pfdhfr </it>and 437G/540E <it>pfdhps</it>) in both highland and lowland samples. Further, we did not detect significant difference in the frequencies of these mutations between symptomatic and asymptomatic malaria volunteers, and between highland and lowland samples.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>These findings suggest that drug resistance of malaria parasites in the highlands could be contributed by the mutations and their high frequencies as found in the lowland. The results are discussed in terms of the role of drug resistance as a driving force for malaria outbreaks in the highlands.</p